Over the past two decades, most indicators of peacefulness have deteriorated, according to the 2024 Global Peace Index. Old and new conflicts, and our political and cultural polarization, are the main culprits.

Peaceful Nations Generate Economic Value
Peace, some people say, starts with a smile. Peaceful societies enjoy greater income growth, stronger currencies and higher foreign investment—not to mention political stability and a greater sense of happiness among their citizens.

The economic impact of violence on the global economy is quantifiable: in 2023, it accounted for $19.1 trillion in purchasing-power parity (PPP) terms, or 13.5% of total global GDP—that’s $2,380 less economic output for each person on the planet.  This represents an overall increase of $158 billion from the year before, and was largely driven by a 20% increase in GDP losses from conflict. Meanwhile, expenditure on peacebuilding and peacekeeping efforts totaled just $49.6 billion, less than 0.6% of total military spending.

These are the most significant takeaways from the 2024 Global Peace Index, the world’s leading measure of global peace. Compiled by the international think-tank Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP), it covers 163 independent states and territories home to 99.7% of the world’s population. The ranking, which is based on 23 indicators grouped into three criteria (societal safety and security; extent of ongoing domestic and international conflict; and degree of militarization), shows 65 countries recording improvement and 97 showing deterioration, more than any year since the inception of the Global Peace Index in 2008.

Global Peace by Region

In total, the level of global peacefulness decreased this year by 0.56% according to the IEP researchers. That might not seem like much, yet it is worth noting that it is the twelfth time that the average has declined, for an overall reduction of 4.5% since the index was launched. Meanwhile, the number of refugees and internally displaced persons has rocketed to 95 million, with 16 nations with at least 5% of the population are either refugees or internally displaced.

It should be no surprise that political instability and unresolved internal conflicts are major factors undermining global peacefulness. Afghanistan ranked as the world’s least peaceful country for six years in a row but has been surpassed in this year’s edition of the Peace Index by South Sudan, Sudan and Yemen which now holds that unenviable distinction. Ukraine—which last year recorded the largest deterioration in the index, falling 14 places to the 157th spot—dropped 2 positions further, to 159. Needless to say, the conflict in Gaza also has had a negative impact on global peacefulness, with Israel and Palestine recording the first and fourth largest deteriorations in the ranking, respectively. Ecuador, Gabon and Haiti were the other nations that experienced a sharp decline.

On the whole, last year saw 162,000 deaths due to conflict, marking the second-highest toll in three decades. The wars in Ukraine and Gaza were responsible for nearly 75% of these fatalities with Ukraine alone accounting for over half (83,000 deaths) while Gaza saw at least 33,000 deaths by April 2024. Another worrying trend is that conflicts are becoming more internationalized: 92 countries are now involved in external conflicts in some form—the respective figure from the 2008 index was just 33.

Even more concerning, the Institute for Economics and Peace researchers point out, many of the factors that typically precede major conflicts are more pronounced today than they have been since the end of the Second World War. There are currently 56 active conflicts, the most since the late 1940s, with fewer conflicts being settled, militarily or through peace agreements.

Regional Distribution of Peaceful Countries

Regionally, North America recorded the largest average deterioration of all the regions, with a drop of almost 5% primarily driven by increases in violent crime and fear of violence in both Canada and the US. Home to four of the ten least peaceful countries in the world, the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) is the least peaceful region globally. Sub-Saharan Africa, the second least peaceful region, also recorded a fall in peacefulness this year.

Elsewhere, Central America and the Caribbean’s average fell slightly by 0.17%, with seven out of 12 countries declining in their scores and five countries improving. Notably, El Salvador and Nicaragua recorded respectively the first and third-highest improvements globally. South America declined too (by 3.6%) as a result of deteriorations in the Safety and Security and Ongoing Conflict domains.
Western Europe remains the world’s most peaceful region overall, with seven nations placing in the top 10, including the top three slots. Europe’s strength arises from its relatively low internal conflict and political instability and high socio-economic development, buoyed by longstanding efforts to develop peaceful societies at home. Still, last year, the continent recorded its largest year-on-year increase in military expenditure since the index’s inception. Behind Western Europe, Asia-Pacific is the second most peaceful region, with the overall score deteriorating by 0.1%.

The only regional improvement in peacefulness, by 0.6%, occurred in the Russia and Eurasia region, largely due to the bounce-back effect from the steep decline experienced after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Still, the overall levels of peacefulness in the region remain very low compared to its historical averages.

Positive Peace From The World’s Most Peaceful Countries

Amid widespread global turmoil, perhaps the more peaceful nations show a way forward. While countries like Iceland and New Zealand may benefit from their geographic isolation—making them more culturally cohesive and less exposed to territorial disputes—several nations in the top positions of the index fought vicious wars at one point in history, but today are integral members of the world’s most peaceful region, Europe. Elsewhere, Singapore and Malaysia illustrate the impact of democratic institutions and economic growth, as well as the ability to draw important lessons from a past marked by struggle and poverty, on bolstering peace.

While the institutions that manage societies—at least in terms of global averages—have generally improved and become more efficient and transparent, conflicts and violent protests stemming from opposing political views have increased across the world over the past decade, they have accelerated during the Covid-19 pandemic, and have continued after. Peaceful societies are not weighed down by the costs and burdens of violence, political instability and corruption, and they are more productive, informed and educated.